Soybeans takes stage as flashpoint amid US-China trade tensions
China recently implemented additional export restrictions on rare earth elements, prompting the US to respond with a plan to impose a 100% tariff on top of the existing rate starting Nov. 1, alongside controls on critical software exports. In a recent social media post, US President Donald Trump claimed that China is “purposefully not buying” American soybeans.
Since Trump assumed office, China has diversified its soybean suppliers to reduce reliance on the US. Reports indicate that Beijing has not yet secured substantial soybean shipments for December and January, while rising prices for Brazilian cargoes are deterring potential buyers.
Analysts suggest that China might turn to its state reserves to meet near-term soybean needs, a prospect that is currently influencing market behavior. Prices for soybeans have fluctuated moderately, starting 2025 at $10.10 per bushel, dipping to $9.70, and stabilizing around $10.82.
“Soybeans are a crop with sociopolitical importance in Washington, as farmers played a big role in Trump’s election,” Sadi Kaymaz, an Asia markets expert, told reports.
Kaymaz noted that the US ranks alongside Brazil as one of the world’s top soybean exporters, while China remains dependent on imports due to its large livestock industry. In recent years, the strain in US-China relations has pushed Beijing to increasingly rely on Brazil for its soybean supply.
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