AGP Executive Report

ASEAN Diplomacy & Security: Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. used his SONA to call ASEAN a “safe harbor” and urged an end to violent conflicts, saying the bloc helped cushion Middle East shock impacts and strengthen regional security and food/energy resilience. Investment Climate Watch: Philippine business groups backed Marcos’ push to improve the investment climate, but stressed execution—cutting red tape and lowering operating costs—will decide whether plans like the green lane program and an AI hub in New Clark City deliver. Tariffs & Trade Risk: OCBC flagged that new US Section 301 tariffs may have limited near-term export impact across parts of Asia thanks to exemptions, but remains an overhang for exporters amid an ongoing probe into excess capacity. FX Divergence on AI Boom: Goldman Sachs says Asian currencies are splitting: AI-and-chip beneficiaries (South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia) are outperforming energy-cost-sensitive economies (Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines). Central Banking in a Volatile Region: Pakistan’s central bank held its policy rate at 11.50%, expecting some inflation easing if West Asia tensions don’t escalate, while warning commodity volatility and El Niño risks could still bite. Corporate Update (China/West Asia Pressure): Audi cut its annual outlook, citing tougher China conditions and West Asia tensions, with Q2 after-tax profit down about 21%.

Markets & Energy: Oil slid after US-Iran paused attacks, easing inflation fears and lifting Asian risk assets; Brent fell about 4–5% to the low-$90s as investors also looked ahead to the Fed decision and earnings. Indonesia Policy Shock: Bank Indonesia governor Perry Warjiyo resigned citing personal reasons; deputy Destry Damayanti steps in as acting governor, adding uncertainty for currency stability and central bank independence. Philippines Macro: AMRO kept 2026 growth at 4.1% but trimmed inflation, warning the economy remains exposed to Middle East oil shocks even as AI supports activity. Indonesia E-commerce Tax: From Aug 1, major platforms (Tokopedia, Shopee, Blibli, Lazada) must withhold income tax from large online sellers, reshaping compliance and costs across the digital economy. Regional Business & Trade: Vietnam’s VILOG 2026 logistics fair opens July 30 with a push toward smart logistics; India-UK CETA rollout starts with early auto-parts exports. ASEAN Governance: Malaysia’s MACC will host the ASEAN Parties Against Corruption meeting in Melaka to coordinate enforcement and prevention across the bloc. Tech & Capital Markets: China’s CXMT surged in Shanghai’s debut, while Singapore ranked top in an AI cities index and Hong Kong lagged.

Energy Security: A fire at Bangladesh’s Moheshkhali gas storage and regasification unit has deepened the country’s gas crunch, sending people back to long queues and threatening power generation and key industries like textiles. Regional Diplomacy & Trade: Indonesia is pushing to fast-track the EU’s ratification of the IEU-CEPA, targeting approval in H2 2026 and entry into force in early 2027. APEC Data Push: APEC economies in Chengdu agreed to treat data as a growth resource, aiming to move from “managing data” to using it, with stronger connectivity and cross-border cooperation. Markets Watch: Asia is bracing for volatility as investors track the US Fed decision and West Asia-linked oil risks, with crude near $100 feeding inflation concerns. Business & Tech: ServiceNow is investing $40m in India’s BusinessNext (valued at $700m) to expand autonomous AI for banking workflows. Governance & Integrity: Malaysia will host the ASEAN-PAC secretariat meeting in Melaka (July 28-30) to strengthen regional anti-corruption cooperation. Investment Climate: India’s Investment Friendliness Index flags persistent bottlenecks—skilled labour, land access, and approval timelines—despite progress on digital and incentives.

Philippines Energy Security: Makabayan lawmakers warn the US-backed Pax Silica Economic Security Zone in New Clark City could need about 5GW of power, pushing electricity prices higher and straining the already fragile grid. India Markets & Trade: A global chip-trade slowdown is boosting India’s appeal for foreign portfolio investors, with strong equity and debt inflows even as Brent oil risks linger. Corporate Earnings: Tata Consumer Products beat estimates in Q1, driven by branded growth, while the wider consumer staples picture still faces margin pressure. AI & Work: A Bessemer Venture Partners survey says AI is already reshaping hiring and workflows in high-growth tech firms, with many teams delivering more without adding headcount. APEC AI Cooperation: APEC economies set priorities for AI security, responsible adoption, innovation and wider participation across the Asia-Pacific. ASEAN Policing: The Philippines’ PNP discussed fugitive manhunts with foreign counterparts at Aseanapol, including coordination with Interpol and European partners. Regional Mobility & Cost: Australia raised international student visa fees by 25% but exempted ASEAN students from the hike, aiming to deepen ties. Banking Deal: HSBC agreed to sell its Singapore life and health insurance unit to Allianz in a deal that includes a long bancassurance distribution partnership. Southeast Asia Tech & Culture: Laos hosted key ASEAN-led foreign ministers’ meetings, while Hong Kong’s children’s choir toured Singapore and Vietnam with official support.

Middle East Security: Iran’s Kheibar Shekan missile is spotlighted as a low-cost, hard-to-intercept “workhorse” threat, linked to a Jordan base attack that killed US personnel. ASEAN Diplomacy: ASEAN foreign ministers in Manila advanced regional agendas and external partnerships, while Myanmar’s engagement remains contentious as ASEAN presses for proof of Suu Kyi’s status. Regional Trade & Investment: The Philippines and Thailand moved to deepen economic ties via a business forum and new MOUs, while the UAE and Canada pushed fresh momentum through a trade roundtable in Toronto. China-ASEAN Ties: China and ASEAN foreign ministers met in Manila, issuing a joint push on cooperation and Middle East-related concerns. Deal Activity: Global M&A hit a record $3.1T in H1 2026, boosted by mega-deals and AI-driven acquisitions. India Economy: HSBC’s Flash PMI points to a four-year low in India private-sector activity as West Asia tensions and inflation weigh on sales and output. Energy & Infrastructure: ONGC begins deepwater drilling in the Mahanadi basin under its Samudra Manthan push to cut import dependence. Business Moves: Stellantis names new China and Asia-Pacific leadership roles; Isuzu signs a five-year export pact with Kamarajar Port; Vietnam’s Da Nang readies a hotel and tourism tech forum.

US–EU Trade Clash: Trump threatens a Section 301 probe into the EU over alleged discriminatory fines on US tech, escalating tariff uncertainty for Asia-linked supply chains. South China Sea Diplomacy: ASEAN and China aim to wrap talks on a long-awaited SCS code of conduct by year-end, but experts warn legal and coverage gaps could drag timelines. Middle East Shock to Trade: With Strait of Hormuz risks rising, DP World’s planned UAE port reroute highlights how firms must redesign supply chains, not just reroute cargo. ASEAN Security Roadmap: ARF adopts the Manila Plan of Action for 2026–36, pushing proactive risk management across cybersecurity, climate and supply-chain disruptions. AI and Business Execution: NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang backs open-weight AI to broaden innovation and competition, while a report says enterprise AI is shifting from coding productivity to real business delivery. Digital Economy vs Jobs: Indonesia’s digital payments boom contrasts with high informal employment, raising pressure for better labor and policy capture. Philippines Domestic Pressure: Pulse Asia finds Filipinos want Marcos’ SONA to tackle corruption and basic commodity prices first. Copyright Meets AI: India’s court backs ANI’s OpenAI dispute with an interim ruling that training under private research use may be exempt.

ASEAN Diplomacy in Manila: The Philippines wrapped four days of ASEAN ministerial meetings, highlighting the bloc’s “convening power” and adopting key common positions, as the South China Sea and Middle East tensions stayed front and center. US-ASEAN Security Stakes: The US reiterated it will keep operating in international waters and won’t let any South China Sea code undermine its interests. Philippines Power Costs: A Philippine senator called for a review of EPIRA, saying electricity prices stayed high despite privatization and competition. Market Shock from West Asia: Middle East crude premiums jumped as Red Sea and Hormuz disruptions rerouted supplies, feeding into broader Asian market jitters. Malaysia Data Centre Backlash: Malaysia’s data-centre boom is facing a widening “resources” debate over power and sustainability, with protests spreading beyond Johor. Philippines Anti-Corruption Push: A Pulse Asia survey found nearly 30% of Filipinos want Marcos to focus on anti-corruption in his SONA. Tech & Chips: Intel’s revenue forecast beat estimates on data-centre demand tied to AI. Trade & Tariffs: US forced-labour tariff moves loom across multiple economies, adding pressure to regional exporters.

ASEAN Diplomacy in Manila: Philippines-hosted ASEAN foreign ministers’ meetings wrapped up with new regional agreements and a push to keep ASEAN as a consensus platform amid geopolitical uncertainty, while China urged opposition to “external interference” and warned against renewed militarism. Cambodia’s ASEAN push: Phnom Penh used ASEAN Post-Ministerial Conference+1 sessions to press for deeper ASEAN-US and wider dialogue-partner cooperation on trade, investment, digital transformation, AI, infrastructure, energy security and anti-scams. Markets hit by oil + AI jitters: Asian shares slid as Brent topped $100 on Middle East tensions, while investors also weighed AI spending fears and fresh tariff headlines. Malaysia finance deal: Malaysia priced a $1.5bn global sukuk with record-low spread after 4.7x oversubscription, signaling investor confidence in its reform agenda. India business + policy: Foundit says over half of professionals are already job-hunting as appraisals run late; SEBI floated a mutual-fund-only PMS category; and NCLT paused Byju’s insolvency bidding until Aug 31. Payments + aviation: Fiuu expanded JCB direct acquiring across Malaysia, Singapore and the Philippines; and SIA Engineering set up a Singapore LEAP engine MRO JV with Safran.

ASEAN Diplomacy: Manila hosted the 16th East Asia Summit and the ASEAN Regional Forum, with leaders urging unity as wars, trade friction and tech risks reshape the Indo-Pacific. Maritime Security: India’s Jaishankar warned that attacks on seafarers and civilian shipping can’t be tolerated, while ASEAN ministers pushed for open straits amid US-Iran tensions. Energy Shock Watch: Oil jumped as Houthi claims of attacks on Saudi tankers revived fears for Red Sea routes and Strait of Hormuz disruption, pressuring Asian markets and India’s import bill. Regional Cooperation: Japan pledged closer ASEAN-plus-three work on energy security and anti-scam efforts, and Indonesia urged stronger ASEAN-China resilience via RCEP and ACFTA 3.0. Power & Regulation: Nepal reappointed Dr. Ram Prasad Dhital to lead its Electricity Regulatory Commission, aiming to improve cross-border electricity trade governance. Digital & Telecom Push (India): Chhattisgarh targets 1,056 BSNL towers on-air by Dec 2026 and seeks more, alongside BharatNet Phase III connectivity rollout. Business Impact: Connaught Place retailers reported 65–70% sales drops after protests disrupted footfall. Healthcare Markets: New research forecasts rapid growth in 3D/4D ultrasound, wide-field OCT and preclinical medical device testing services.

ASEAN Diplomacy & Energy Security: ASEAN foreign ministers in Manila are set to push for freedom of navigation and “unimpeded” passage through the Strait of Hormuz as the US-Iran conflict keeps energy and trade risks elevated, with the bloc also seeking fresh momentum on regional energy cooperation. Markets & Oil Shock: Asian stocks mostly edged higher while Brent pushed past $96 on renewed West Asia tensions, keeping inflation and import-bill worries front and center for the region. Philippines Risk Outlook: Oxford Economics warns the Philippines could see a meaningful improvement in sovereign risk if Hormuz reopens, but a prolonged closure through end-2027 would worsen the outlook. Human-Centered Policy: Malaysia’s PM Anwar Ibrahim launched the Humane Economy Global Discourse, linking investment and productivity to dignity, wages, housing and healthcare, with themes expected to feed into the 2027 Budget. Corporate & Tech Moves: Singapore’s CAAS plans $4b for air navigation upgrades using AI and workforce expansion ahead of Changi T5, while IBM’s Asia-Pacific AI spending outlook highlights uneven budgets but continued momentum. Business & Compliance: A Philippines retail-focused piece argues new tax rules are forcing retailers to unify commerce and compliance with real-time visibility and secure operations. Crime & Cyber Scams: A UN report says transnational criminal groups are using technology and AI to expand scams across Asia-Pacific, with 2025 losses estimated up to $114.1bn. Regional Trade & Growth: Thailand’s BOI said investment applications jumped 37% to $43.6bn in 1H 2026, led by digital infrastructure and AI data centers.

ASEAN Diplomacy in Manila: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told ASEAN partners the US “will never abandon” the bloc, citing $2.5bn in strategic investments and $1.5bn more via the US International Development Finance Corporation, as the Quad and ASEAN-focused talks also pushed Indo-Pacific peace and ASEAN unity amid South China Sea and China-related security concerns. Quad Signals: India joined Quad foreign ministers in Manila to back a free and open Indo-Pacific and practical delivery of the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific, including maritime security, critical tech and emergency response. Indonesia Rights Backlash: Asean SOGIE Caucus warned Indonesia’s move to label “dissemination of LGBTQ culture” a “non-military threat” could legitimize discrimination and state repression. Southeast Asia Business Expansion: Three Fourth Solutions is expanding into Southeast Asia via Thailand as its first overseas hub for integrated marketing, AI consulting and business transformation. Payments & Subscriptions: Juspay partnered with Recurly to integrate Hyperswitch, aiming to cut payment failures and speed subscription go-to-market. Aviation Tech Deal: Odys Aviation and ST Engineering signed an MOU to develop hybrid-electric propulsion for ST Engineering’s DrN-600 cargo UAS. Markets & Energy: India’s Sensex and Nifty fell for a third straight session as Brent surged on West Asia tensions; gold rose to a two-week high while silver rebounded. PNG Digital Push: Papua New Guinea’s DTS26 seeks investment in digital infrastructure and AI adoption through regional partnerships.

ASEAN-India Diplomacy: ASEAN and India reaffirmed their long-running partnership in Manila, focusing on trade, connectivity, maritime security and people-to-people ties, with maritime cooperation spanning blue economy, marine energy and enforcement capacity-building. Middle East Shock for Asia: U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned ASEAN that Iran’s proposed toll control in the Strait of Hormuz would set a dangerous precedent for freedom of navigation, as ASEAN foreign ministers pressed for an immediate halt to fighting and safe reopening of the strait. ASEAN Credibility Test: Indonesia urged ASEAN to turn commitments into tangible results amid Middle East, South China Sea and Myanmar pressures, asking “Can ASEAN deliver on its promises?” Markets & Energy: Asian shares edged higher after Wall Street’s tech-led rebound, but oil and inflation worries lingered as crude prices rose on U.S.-Iran tensions. Trade Facilitation in Cambodia: Cambodia’s customs readiness is becoming a bigger business issue as trade volumes grow across ASEAN, affecting clearance speed, inventory and delivery timelines. Corporate & Fintech Moves: Sodexo picked Clariant for a five-year global workplace services partnership across 13 countries; Allianz Trade created a new Asia-Pacific surety business role based in Hong Kong; Revolut launched its licensed bank in Australia. Payments Innovation: EnKash rolled out UPI payments on its Meal Card, aiming to make meal benefits easier to use for employees. AI Governance Training: Singapore’s IMDA and IAPP signed a three-year pact to expand AI governance and data protection training and certification.

ASEAN Diplomacy: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio arrived in Manila for ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ talks and the East Asia Summit, with Washington also slamming Beijing over “dangerous and aggressive” actions after a clash injuring a Filipino sailor at Second Thomas Shoal. India-ASEAN Engagement: External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar will join ASEAN-India, EAS and ARF meetings in Manila (July 22-23) and take part in a Quad Foreign Ministers’ meeting on the sidelines. China-ASEAN Track: China’s Wang Yi is set to attend the China-ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ meeting in Manila before moving to Kyrgyzstan for the SCO foreign ministers’ council. Malaysia-Russia Trade: Malaysia reported Malaysia-Russia bilateral trade up 7% to RM3.55bn in Jan-May 2026, with exports led by processed food, palm products and E&E. Sabah Power Security: Malaysia’s SSML project is framed as a resilience upgrade to strengthen Sabah’s grid and reduce reliance on a single transmission line. Finance & Markets: Marex agreed to buy Asian-focused clearing firm BPI to expand its APAC and China reach. Sports Business: PGA Tour, DP World Tour and Asian Tour announced an alliance through 2029, a potential blow to LIV Golf’s Asian Tour ties.

ASEAN Diplomacy Under Pressure: ASEAN foreign ministers opened talks in Manila with unity as the theme, but the US-Iran conflict and Myanmar’s stalled peace process are set to dominate the agenda. South China Sea Flashpoint: The US condemned “dangerous” China actions after a clash near Second Thomas Shoal, as Rubio arrived for ASEAN meetings and China’s top diplomat is expected to attend. Oil, Markets, and Risk Appetite: Asian stocks rebounded as Middle East mediation eased oil from a one-month high, though investors stayed wary ahead of major tech earnings. Cyber and Fraud Shock: A UN report says scam losses across East Asia, Southeast Asia, Australia and New Zealand hit $88.3bn–$114.1bn in 2025, with syndicates using AI and shared services to outpace crackdowns. Indonesia Financial Push: Indonesia’s parliament passed a law to create international financial centres, offering major tax incentives to attract up to $28bn in investment. Tourism Partnerships: Singapore Tourism Board and Traveloka renewed and expanded their co-marketing deal to drive more Southeast Asian and Australian travellers. Malaysia FX Liberalisation: Bank Negara Malaysia said it will keep gradually liberalising foreign exchange rules while protecting financial stability. Business Tech & Media: EssenceMediacom retained Uber’s APAC media mandate after a regional pitch.

ASEAN Diplomacy: The 59th ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting opened in Manila under “Navigating Our Future, Together,” with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and China’s Wang Yi among key partners, as ministers tackle regional security and economic priorities through July 24. EV Market Move: BYD Sime Motors launched “BYD Certified,” its certified pre-owned EV program in Malaysia, with professional inspections, verified battery health, warranty, and financing—its first Asia Pacific certified outlet. ASEAN-Japan Business Platform: ASEAN and Japan’s DISG task force adopted a joint declaration in Bangkok, focusing on supply-chain resilience, innovation co-creation, AI/digital investment, and energy transition. Markets & Oil Shock: Bursa Malaysia’s KLCI slipped 0.52% on banking profit-taking as Brent pushed above $90 amid West Asia tensions, keeping inflation worries in play. Energy Infrastructure: Kyrgyzstan signed a $25m deal to build a 450,000-ton modern refinery in Kochkor-Ata, targeting first operations by end-2026. Regional Connectivity: AirBorneo will expand across ASEAN, starting with Kuching–Singapore and adding Jakarta, while keeping rural air services in Sarawak and Sabah. AI Governance: Indonesia joined WAICO as a founding member to help shape global AI rules.

Malaysia Trade Boost: Malaysia’s June 2026 trade surged 44.7% to RM340.9b as exports rose 45.4% to RM177.9b and imports climbed 43.9% to RM163.0b, lifting the surplus 64.9% to RM14.9b. West Asia Shock to Energy Bills: India’s crude oil import bill jumped 60% y/y in Q1, while net oil and gas imports rose 45% in value as Hormuz disruptions pushed up prices. ASEAN Foreign Ministers Focus: ASEAN ministers in Manila will weigh West Asia conflict, South China Sea tensions, and food security and power-grid cooperation. Southeast Asia IPO Gap: Philippines IPO activity stalled in H1 with zero proceeds as regional mega deals drew capital, while Deloitte flags valuation and rate pressures. ADB Fraud Warning: ADB warned Bangladesh against fake “ADB loan” schemes using its name and logo, urging people to report scams. Embedded Insurance Funding: Cover Genius raised $100m at a $1.9b valuation to expand its AI-first embedded insurance platform. Markets Hit by Oil and Chips: South Korea’s KOSPI slid nearly 5% into a technical bear market as chip selloffs and Iran-linked oil risks spooked investors.