AGP Executive Report

Capital Flows to Malaysia: Foreign investors returned to Malaysian equities in July with RM300.9m net inflows, led by financial services (RM1.11b), transportation & logistics (RM367.2m) and utilities (RM305.6m), while tech and industrial products saw selling. Cloud & AI Buildout in India: Microsoft launched its India South Central cloud region in Hyderabad, adding four hyperscale regions in India and targeting AI workloads with improved security and compliance for enterprises. India–Israel Ties: PM Modi spoke with Israeli PM Netanyahu, reviewing progress on the India-Israel Special Strategic Partnership and exchanging views on West Asia developments. Biodiversity Policy in Asia: Asia advanced a roadmap for Other Effective Area-based Conservation Measures (OECMs) in Tokyo, shifting focus from definitions to identification, governance and financing. China Growth Worry Hits Consumer Tech: China’s slowing consumer spending and weak youth jobs are starting to weigh on sectors like cameras. AI & Cybersecurity: OpenAI said it stopped an Asian scam campaign hijacking ChatGPT to lure victims. Healthcare Device Market Pulse: New reports point to continued growth across medical tech—from fertility tests to endoscopy and sterilization—supported by expanding care capacity and faster diagnostics.

ASEAN Diplomacy: Myanmar’s ex-junta chief Min Aung Hlaing arrived in Bangkok for his first visit to Thailand as civilian leader, as regional efforts to normalise ties with Myanmar continue. Cross-border Payments: Maybank Singapore joined MAS’s BLOOM initiative to advance tokenised cross-border settlement using regulated stablecoins, building on earlier on-chain FX and tokenised sukuk work. Banking Outlook: DBS lifted its 2026 earnings outlook, citing strength in wealth management. Digital Infrastructure: Malaysia’s U Mobile opened an enterprise innovation hub to help firms test and scale 5G and AI, aiming to close the gap between tech ambition and real deployment. AI Data Centres: KONST signed a data centre collaboration in Jakarta for liquid-cooled, high-density compute capacity, marking its first compute deployment beyond Taiwan. Tourism & Aviation Links: Gulf Air opened bookings for direct Bahrain–Kuala Lumpur flights from Sept 29, while Sun PhuQuoc Airways launched a daily KL–Phu Quoc service from Sept 1. Energy Transition Pressure: A report highlights how Hormuz disruption is stressing South Asia’s energy security and public finances. Financial Stability: Ghana’s central bank ordered banks to cut non-performing loans to below 10% by end-2026.

ASEAN Trade & Investment: The Philippines is pitching itself as a regional production and services hub for Singapore firms, highlighting manufacturing, semiconductors, agritech, digital services and green industries as it seeks supply-chain diversification across Southeast Asia. Bilateral Diplomacy: Vietnam and Malaysia signaled deeper ties after Vietnam’s President To Lam met Malaysia’s outgoing ambassador, citing rising trade to $10.8bn in the first half of 2026 (+40% y/y). Energy Markets: LNG prices for October inched up to about $20.4/MMBtu as heat and geopolitics supported spot demand; Bangladesh, India, Thailand and Taiwan are active buyers. Indonesia Growth: Indonesia’s Q2 growth eased to 5.3% but beat forecasts on strong household and government spending, even as analysts warn tighter rates could slow momentum. Bangladesh Trade & Currency: Bangladesh secured preferential access to South Korea for 97% of exports under a CEPA, while the taka stayed among the region’s most stable currencies (+0.59% depreciation vs the dollar over a year). Fintech & Payments: Yellow Card raised $40m to expand stablecoin processing and dollar accounts, targeting bank and corporate treasury needs across Asia-Pacific and Latin America. Corporate Deals: Bain Capital agreed to acquire Gong cha, building on TA’s expansion push since 2019. Healthcare Business: Netflix announced an India Storytelling Initiative to invest in AVGC talent, while Greycoat Research is bringing its “Cat Kidney Store” concept to SUPERZOO after a sharp U.S. sales surge.

Monetary Policy Watch (India): The RBI kept the repo rate at 5.25% and stayed “neutral,” while raising FY27 GDP growth to 6.7% and trimming FY27 inflation to 5%, citing resilience but warning that West Asia conflict, oil volatility, monsoon risks and trade uncertainty could still move prices. Markets & Macro (Asia): Asian equities jumped as Wall Street hit records and hopes grew for progress around the Strait of Hormuz, with oil easing and tech-led gains lifting Seoul, Tokyo and Taiwan. Indonesia Growth: Indonesia’s Q2 GDP slowed to 5.29% y/y but beat forecasts, even as investor confidence worries and policy concerns linger. AI & Sovereign Tech (Korea): Cohere set up a Seoul-based APAC HQ to scale its enterprise AI for sovereign and regulated deployments. Trade & Integration (Malaysia-EU): European business leaders urged Malaysia to push for a high-quality EU-Malaysia FTA focused on rules, customs and investment conditions. Regional Energy Security (China): A report highlights how China’s strategic reserves and diversified supply helped stabilize oil markets during Middle East shipping disruptions. Business Expansion (Philippines): Seven Philippine firms made Forbes Asia’s Best Under A Billion 2026 list, led by AUB.

ASEAN Strategy: Thailand’s PM Anutin Charnvirakul lays out a three-pronged ASEAN vision—stronger regionalism, resilience to shocks, and people-centred delivery—pushing supply-chain, food/energy security, digital connectivity, and youth readiness. Trade & Services: India-UK CETA (in force since 15 July 2026) is framed as a major export-oriented shift, with broad services market access across IT, telecoms, finance, hospitality and transport while protecting sensitive areas like autos and agriculture. Geopolitics & Shipping: Analysts warn Iran’s Strait of Hormuz leverage is increasingly about maritime disruption and economic pressure, with knock-on effects for global shipping and insurance costs. Singapore AI Skills: Singapore’s Tan Kiat How says the real AI challenge is keeping human expertise and decision-making relevant, with strong fundamentals in software, cybersecurity and systems thinking. Bangladesh Development Finance: Bangladesh expects about $775m in ADB support for power, energy, affordable housing and education, with negotiations underway for multiple projects. Healthcare Market Signals: A wave of new reports flags fast growth across digital health and medical devices—from digital therapeutics and pathology to imaging and monitoring tools—underscoring Asia’s expanding health-tech spend. Business Recognition: Forbes Asia’s 2026 “Best Under A Billion” list spotlights 200 firms across Asia-Pacific, with Malaysia’s count rising to 19, boosted by the AI/data-centre boom.

Philippines Growth Cut: The World Bank sharply downgraded its outlook for the Philippines, now seeing 3.7% growth in 2026 (down from 5.3%) as policy uncertainty, a corruption-driven infrastructure review, and Middle East-linked oil shocks hit spending, investment and jobs. Markets & FX: Asian shares were mostly mixed as investors digested US-led gains and the impact of the recent US-Japan yen intervention; analysts warned currency moves may not fix underlying inflation and rate drivers. India Policy Watch: Indian bonds were steady ahead of the RBI decision, with state debt supply in focus, while equities traded mixed after the new Closing Auction Session for F&O stocks kicked in. ASEAN Trade Push: Thailand and Indonesia set a target to lift bilateral trade to $23 billion, aiming to link mainland manufacturing with Indonesia’s maritime economy and green tech. Energy & Costs: West Asia tensions kept pressure on oil and inflation expectations across Asia, with businesses bracing for higher fuel and shipping costs. Corporate Moves: HCLTech completed its acquisition of HPE’s Telco Solutions business; SAMHI Hotels reported a profit jump but shares slid. EV Momentum: India’s EV registrations surged 63% YoY in July, with electric car sales up 81% as adoption broadens. Fintech Expansion: Mintoak acquired Dubai-based ICC Loyalty to expand payments into engagement and loyalty across multiple regions.

Aviation & Connectivity: Riyadh Air opened bookings for direct flights linking Saudi Arabia’s capital with Islamabad, Lahore and Manila, with first departures from mid-August and September, boosting travel for Pakistan and the Filipino community. ASEAN Trade & Security: Indonesia and Thailand agreed to strengthen ASEAN resilience and cooperation, including food security and a first-ever Joint Trade Commission to tackle trade barriers, as they also reaffirmed support for Myanmar’s ASEAN Five-Point Consensus. China Trade Posture: China defended its “advanced industries over consumption” economic model ahead of EU and US talks, signaling continuity while rejecting claims of protectionism and industrial overcapacity. Monetary/FX Spillovers: The US carried out yen intervention with Japan’s request, with Trump calling it help for Japan and a positive signal for the world economy. Bangladesh External Financing & Inflation: Bangladesh’s external cushion looks thinner as concessional loan commitments and disbursements fall, while inflation pressures broadened in June, with energy costs driving the biggest jump. Energy Markets: Iran-linked oil refining profits are lifting Big Oil earnings, but the surge may fade as long-term demand shifts. Malaysia BioHerbal Push: Malaysia’s health ministry says the herbal industry could create RM30–50 billion in value over the next decade, backed by clinical validation, AI-assisted discovery and stronger regulatory pathways.

Philippines Cement Deal: Holcim is exiting the Philippines, agreeing to sell its local unit to China’s Huaxin Building Materials for about $807m—67.6% first for $527m, with the rest divested over 3-5 years (minimum $280m), subject to regulators, with closing targeted for H1 2027. Markets & Energy: Oil slid after Trump called off a planned Iran attack, easing Brent by ~7% to just above $83; Asian stocks were mixed as traders also weighed AI-demand worries. India Rates Watch: India’s RBI MPC starts a three-day meeting; most expect the repo rate to stay at 5.25% as inflation risks from crude, rupee weakness and West Asia conflict compete with growth concerns. Singapore-ASEAN Business Push: A report urges Singapore to deepen ASEAN links as costs rise, backing cross-border operating models and faster fixes to customs, immigration and transport frictions. APAC Finance & Tech: HDBank secured a record $721m international syndicated social loan with ADB and Standard Chartered to expand SME and women-owned business lending in Vietnam. Corporate Moves: Relm Insurance names Tim Powell to lead Asia-Pacific growth from Sydney; Mastercard appoints six senior Asia-Pacific executives, including new core payments leadership. Defense & Innovation: ST Engineering reports new Asia deployments for counter-drone systems; Singapore startup Atomionics opens an integrated quantum sensing hub for marine gravimetry.

Philippines Anti-Smuggling: The Philippine National Police is stepping up surveillance and boosting joint operations with ASEAN partners to curb cigarette smuggling, after more than ₱10 billion worth of contraband was seized since late 2025. Philippines Inflation Watch: Economists expect July inflation to hold around 6.4%, with food easing slightly but fuel, electricity and broader cost pressures keeping the central bank cautious. Philippines Growth Outlook: A poll points to Q2 GDP growth around 2.8%, with public spending and exports helping, but oil prices and political uncertainty weighing. ASEAN Digital Push: Philippines trade officials at an ASEAN business forum backed the Asean Digital Economy Framework Agreement to standardize digital trade and cross-border payments, aiming to cut costs for MSMEs. China Trade Posture: China defended its “advanced industries over consumption” economic model ahead of EU and US talks, signaling policy continuity as disputes over its trade surplus simmer. Holcim Deal: Holcim plans to sell its Philippines business to China’s Huaxin for at least $807m, using proceeds for acquisitions and investment. India Markets & Credit: SBI Research says corporate and personal loans drove about 63% of incremental bank credit growth in Q1 FY27, led by petroleum, power infrastructure, chemicals and engineering. Tech for SMEs: Vietrade and Meta signed an MoU to help Vietnamese businesses use digital tools for market expansion and training.

Aviation & Investment: India’s PM Modi inaugurated the new Vizag airport (Alluri Sitarama Raju International Airport) in Andhra Pradesh, with commercial operations set for Aug 17, 2026, aiming to boost connectivity for the “Gateway of the East” as major tech and data-centre plans cluster near Vizag. Policy Uncertainty: A Nepal Rastra Bank study links economic-policy uncertainty to weaker growth, estimating potential hits to the stock market, imports, credit and GDP if uncertainty persists. Climate Risk & Action Gap: A report flags a high chance of a very strong El Niño by end-2026, warning Southeast Asia has climate data but still lacks government and business plans that translate forecasts into protection for communities and supply chains. Geopolitics & Trade Routes: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Iran is more willing to negotiate after US strikes, while Trump signalled a pause on fresh attacks if a deal can quickly reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Tech & Markets: Goldman Sachs says “space stocks” may offer long-term upside beyond launches, though valuations and volatility could make returns uneven. Health Access: India’s LG inaugurated an Asian Oceanian breast imaging congress, pushing for affordable screening and earlier detection. Cross-border Payments: Central Asia-focused fintech TaqFlow emerged from stealth, pitching faster, cheaper corridor payments to cut settlement delays and currency volatility. Energy & Consumer Impact: India’s GST collections rose 15.4% in July, with import GST a key driver, reflecting resilient activity despite West Asia-linked costs.

Greater Caspian Geoeconomics: Azerbaijan and Kyrgyzstan are deepening ties through the Cholpon-Ata track, with an alliance-style alignment aimed at stabilising the South Caucasus–Central Asia trade axis. AI Governance: A Shanghai-signed WAICO deal sets up a new intergovernmental AI cooperation body, pushing rule-setting beyond a small tech club. Cross-Border Payments: TaqFlow says it has emerged from stealth to launch a faster, cheaper Central Asian payments network built to cut settlement delays and currency volatility. Bangladesh–US Partnership: US envoy Sergio Gor wraps up a Bangladesh visit, prioritising trade, investment and Rohingya support, while Dhaka pitches US funding for warehousing and agri/IT supply chains. India Market Signals: Motilal Oswal upgrades Bajaj Finance to Buy (target Rs 1,300) and keeps a cautious rates view; Axis trims Dabur’s target to Rs 515 amid West Asia uncertainty. Energy Shock Buffering: India defends ethanol blending, saying it saved consumers about ₹30/litre during the West Asia spike. Southeast Asia Power Theft: Crypto mining is increasingly stealing electricity and linking to organised crime, with Malaysia reporting large losses and raids. Policy Uncertainty Hit: Nepal’s central bank study links policy uncertainty to weaker stocks, imports and growth. ASEAN–China Cities: Singapore urges ASEAN–China co-creation on housing and liveable cities, citing the Tianjin eco-city model.

Energy & Costs (India): India cut commercial LPG cylinder prices again from Aug 1, by ₹202 in Delhi and ₹209 in Kolkata (19-kg now ₹2,728 in Delhi; ₹2,872.50 in Kolkata), while household LPG prices stayed unchanged—another small relief for restaurants, hotels and caterers after West Asia-linked volatility. Fuel Pricing (India): At the same time, ATF prices were raised by ₹5 per litre for airlines, likely lifting operating costs even as ticket prices depend on demand and competition. Climate & Jobs (South Asia): A World Bank report warns extreme heat is costing South Asia the equivalent of 31 million full-time jobs each year and could cut the region’s economy by nearly 7% by 2050, with textiles and other labour-heavy supply chains most exposed. Demographics (Singapore): Singapore recorded 29,864 births in 2025, below 30,000 for the first time since independence, as fertility falls and housing costs weigh on families. Markets & Regulation (India): NSE paid SEBI ₹714.74 crore as part of a revised settlement totaling ₹1,491.21 crore. Sports Business (Global/Asia): FIFA scrapped its World Cup investor plan after backlash from UEFA, AFC and others, with Infantino citing divisions the project created.

Maritime Investment Crunch: A World Bank report warns East Asia and the Pacific needs nearly USD 900 billion in maritime investment by 2040 to modernize ports and fleets as trade grows and alternative fuels pressure shipping networks. ASEAN Integration Push: Malaysia urged ASEAN to compete as one manufacturing bloc and cut “friction” for cross-border business, spotlighting regional value-chain orchestration. Dollar-Dependence Alarm: AMRO says ASEAN+3 should integrate AI, energy and payments to avoid a self-reinforcing dollar loop, calling for more local data capacity and local-currency tokenised payments. Semiconductor Roadmap: India’s fabless push got a clearer roadmap under Semicon 2.0, with priorities on IP, product focus and easier capital access. Energy & Trade Shock Watch: Rystad expects Asian LNG prices to ease further if US-Iran peace talks progress, though tight Gulf supply may limit the drop. West Asia Fallout for India: India’s oil marketing giant Indian Oil posted a ₹1,141 crore Q1 FY27 net loss tied to suppressed margins, while the government continues monitoring energy security amid shipping risks. Corporate Moves: Saint-Gobain expands in Asia-Pacific via acquisitions in Japan to strengthen construction chemicals. Market/Policy Signals: Thailand unveiled a five-pillar plan to restructure growth around AI, clean energy and financial services, targeting over 3% growth. Sports Governance: AFC joined UEFA and CONCACAF in opposing FIFA’s private investment plan for the World Cup as pressure mounts on Infantino.

Markets & FX: Asia stocks surged after a tech-led Wall Street rebound, with South Korea’s KOSPI jumping ~17% and Japan’s Nikkei rising ~4% as investors returned to AI-linked shares; the yen stayed in focus after BOJ held rates. Central Banking: Japan kept its policy rate at 1% but signaled it could hike if inflation risks grow, keeping traders alert. Digital Infrastructure: Microsoft teamed with Singapore’s Lightstorm on a subsea cable linking India and Southeast Asia, underscoring how cloud/AI demand is driving investment in cross-border connectivity. Trade & Policy: Japan urged ASEAN to address widening trade and industrial imbalances, while RCEP needs stronger rules for e-commerce, digitalization and IP. ADB Support: ADB is doubling financing for Sri Lanka and backing Cambodia with a $450m resilience package to protect households and modernize trade/SME systems amid Middle East-linked cost pressures. Telecom Taxes: An ADB report says Pakistan’s telecom sector faces the region’s heaviest tax burden, with weak 4G/5G readiness and limited fiber holding back the digital economy. EV/Space Watch: Tesla executives reportedly discussed separating China operations ahead of a potential SpaceX merger; Musk called it “fake news.” Payments in ASEAN: Cambodia expanded cross-border QR links with five ASEAN partners via Bakong/KHQR, pushing toward a more borderless digital economy.

Philippines Poverty Shock: UNESCAP warns the Middle East conflict could push up to 86,000 more people in Philippine urban areas below the international poverty line, with the impact depending on how long recovery takes after a 120-day shock. Bangladesh LDC Path: Bangladesh should keep preparing for Least Developed Country graduation even if the UNGA defers it by a few years; a decision is due in September 2026. Trade Deal Push: Bangladesh and South Korea are set to sign a CEPA in Dhaka on Tuesday, aiming for duty-free access and more investment ahead of graduation. Energy Market Reality Check: An energy analysis asks why crude prices didn’t spike as feared, pointing to supply workarounds and China’s role as a shock absorber. ASEAN Integration Moves: Cambodia’s Senate approved bills to deepen ASEAN and global trade links, including aviation-related legal frameworks. West Asia Risk to Business: Reports highlight how West Asia conflict is disrupting trade and even digital infrastructure, while a claimed UAE “silent visa ban” on Pakistanis threatens exports and remittances. Sports Business: MVP and PFL announced a merger to build a new global combat sports platform under the MVP banner.

Semiconductor Water/Power Risk: Philippines’ Pax Silica plan in New Clark City would need ~130 million liters of water a day and 3 GW of power, raising alarms about Central Luzon’s water and energy strain—especially under El Niño and if safeguards fall short. ASEAN-EU Trade Push: Malaysia is set to host nearly 30 European firms for talks as Malaysia-EU FTA negotiations aim for a 2027 finish, with AI, advanced manufacturing, clean energy and sustainable infrastructure on the agenda. Philippines Growth Watch: Philippines Q2 growth may slip to ~2.5% as inflation eases briefly but oil prices rebound above $100 amid renewed Gulf conflict, keeping consumers cautious and investment muted. India Urban Reform Boost: ADB approved a $1 billion loan for India’s urban reforms, backing the Urban Challenge Fund, transit-oriented development, and municipal finance tools. West Asia Oil Shock: Australia warns fuel prices could rise again as Iran war disruptions spread beyond Hormuz to Bab al-Mandeb, tightening supply and lifting “product cracks.” Markets & Rates: US Fed held rates at 3.50–3.75% with a 9-3 split, while Asian equities stayed choppy as oil volatility and AI-linked tech jitters weighed on sentiment. Vietnam Development & IMF: Vietnam’s party conference mapped its development model through 2045+ while Vietnam also seeks closer policy cooperation with the IMF as it enters a new stage. Wealth Management Move: Indosuez Wealth Management is relocating senior advisory leadership from Geneva to Singapore and hiring for Asia discretionary portfolio management as cross-border wealth demand grows.